Banca Centrale Rettiliana -Hayek Brigade - HIC SUNT LEONES - GARRA CHARRUA - NON PRAEVALEBUNT - RT=Reverse Trascriptase johnsnowmemo.com

milan
Joined October 2011
Japan’s Airlines Suspend New Inbound Bookings for December mild suspension
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"No Omicron case found in EU is severe" It is a well known thingy in epidemiology "healthy traveller bias" try another one "mild" bias @manlius84 @Di_SPACE_Lauro @mtizzoni @FabrizioChiodo @fitterhappierAJ @ChristosArgyrop @NickytaLeb @ZiikZiiii @georgimarinov @cosnet_bifi
Non capire nulla: Livello Pro Si chiama "healthy traveller bias" concetto noto in epidemiologia. a lei no pero' @ThManfredi @CrossWordsCW
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Non capire nulla: Livello Pro Si chiama "healthy traveller bias" concetto noto in epidemiologia. a lei no pero' @ThManfredi @CrossWordsCW
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Omicron was in Europe since 1964? Bayes says no
If you catch a sample with SGTF (in Europe), what's the probability it's Omicron? A 🧡excursion into Bayesian statistics. p(Omicron | SGTF) = p(SGTF | Omicron) * p(Omicron) / p(SGTF) The first is easy: p(SGTF | Omicron) ~ 1 (all Omicron shows SGTF)
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gianluca c πŸ΄β€β˜ οΈπŸ‡»πŸ‡ͺ #TeamFauci #MaskUp #no GBD retweeted
🦠 Omicron - on a scale from 1-10, how bad is this going to be? This one's a weirdo, so I'm a 3, a 10, or anything in-between. A thread below with my take on some of the key questions. outbreak.info/situation-repo… 1/
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mild quarantine
U.S. considering stricter test requirements and possible self-quarantine for all travelers entering the U.S. - WaPo
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mild increase in delta
France reports 47,177 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since April
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gianluca c πŸ΄β€β˜ οΈπŸ‡»πŸ‡ͺ #TeamFauci #MaskUp #no GBD retweeted
Replying to @DataDrivenMD
Hi Jorge - I share your concern about the travel bans, but I'm not sure we do have data that shows this has been widely circulating in the EU --- in fact quite the contrary. We've scanned every sequence and found no Omicron before those we already know about.
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gianluca c πŸ΄β€β˜ οΈπŸ‡»πŸ‡ͺ #TeamFauci #MaskUp #no GBD retweeted
Replying to @LawrenceGostin
For the record, and to avoid accidentally crediting Dutch officials with African scientists' discoveries, Dutch officials did *not* find these cases before S Africa reported. Samples were collected before S Africa reported, but were not found to contain #Omicron until *after*.
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gianluca c πŸ΄β€β˜ οΈπŸ‡»πŸ‡ͺ #TeamFauci #MaskUp #no GBD retweeted
This phenomenon has a specific name in epidemiology: it is called "the healthy traveler bias". When one looks for cases only on travelers, one will unconsciously bias the sample towards people who are healthy enough to travel (and generally younger too).
What’s the tinfoil hat take on this? Europe Finds Only Mild or Asymptomatic Omicron Variant Cases So Far - Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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gianluca c πŸ΄β€β˜ οΈπŸ‡»πŸ‡ͺ #TeamFauci #MaskUp #no GBD retweeted
29 novembre: "vista la situazione epidemiologica che vede un aumento di casi nella fascia 13-19 torna la quarantena di classe anche con un solo positivo" 30 novembre:" vista la situazione epidemiologica non c'Γ¨ piu bisogno della quarantena di classe" Un circo imbarazzante.
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why is everyone calculating VE on South Africa assuming the unvaccinated are naive? SA had excess deaths of roughly 0.4% of pop since the pandemic begun Considering SA avg age, IFR was estimated 0.35% NAIVE???? wtf @ThManfredi @CrossWordsCW
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gianluca c πŸ΄β€β˜ οΈπŸ‡»πŸ‡ͺ #TeamFauci #MaskUp #no GBD retweeted
Update #COVID19 situation in SOUTH AFRICAπŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦ β€’ 4,373 more cases today. 7-day avg up 311% week-on-week πŸ“ˆ Expect a large increase tomorrow post weekend effect ⚠️ β€’ Daily test positivity = 10.2% 🚩 β€’ 2,414 currently in hospital β€’ 21 more deaths β€’ % population vaxxed = 28.8% πŸ’‰
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gianluca c πŸ΄β€β˜ οΈπŸ‡»πŸ‡ͺ #TeamFauci #MaskUp #no GBD retweeted
In questa analisi stimiamo il numero di decessi evitati durante i primi sei mesi della campagna vaccinale in Italia. Collaborazione con @net_science @gozzi_nicolo @marcoajelli @mattk7 @jessicadavis_ @apastorepiontti @mkp3123
Latest out: Anatomy of the first six months of COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Italy. 29K deaths and 4.3M infections averted (with respect to a baseline without vaccine but same NPIs). Avoided a new pandemic wave fueled by the alpha variant. Details: medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/…
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Positivity rate at 10.25% tell me you know what is saturation of a sample without telling me what is saturation of a sample
Testing has increased by 4.6%, cases by 404%. This is astonishing.
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Mild
South Africa reports 4,373 new coronavirus cases, an increase of 404% from last week
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Any new variant is competing with 1) old variant 2) pop immunity either for vaxx or previous infections stop saying Omicron doesnt compete coz delta was low in incidence in SA that is bs @ThManfredi
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gianluca c πŸ΄β€β˜ οΈπŸ‡»πŸ‡ͺ #TeamFauci #MaskUp #no GBD retweeted
Replying to @shay_fleishon
bravo shay the fact that Delta was in low background doesnt imply a surging Omicron doesnt compete it means it outcompetes....with vengeance
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